Elisabetta Piccinini (Class CNBC) intervista Nicola Branzoli, capo divisione Normativa, ricerca e supporto tecnico dell’Unità Euro Digitale – Salone dei Pagamenti 2025

When it comes to the risks to financial stability, things seem to have settled down a bit. But with trade tensions, an unpredictable US economic policy, geopolitical issues, a potential AI bubble and the rise of stablecoins, there is plenty to keep an eye on. Has the global environment really become less uncertain? And how do all these factors impact financial stability? To explore these questions and more, our host Paul Gordon speaks with financial stability expert John Fell. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Recorded on 24 November 2025 and published on 27 November 2025. In this episode: 01:25 How stable is the financial system? The EU and the United States reached a trade agreement, and the economic impact of trade uncertainty has been milder than expected. But the full effects of the policy changes are yet to be seen. So, what does this mean for financial stability? 04:14 Is there an AI bubble? The term “AI bubble” is on everyone’s lips right now . But bubbles are hard to identify and even harder to differentiate from legitimate growth. So, are valuations stretched? What about market concentration and circular funding in the AI industry? And how exactly are companies funding investment in AI? 06:15 If there is a bubble, what could cause it to burst? There is significant leverage behind AI investments. Returns will largely depend on how widely AI is adopted. Could AI become a general-purpose technology, like the railways did? 08:15 What about the rise of private credit? How do private credit markets differ from equity financing? Why are risks to euro area financial stability increasing as private markets expand? And how does all this relate to systemic risk in the banking sector and the build-up of AI infrastructure? 11:23 Are stablecoins really stable? Despite what the name suggests, stablecoins carry liquidity run risks that could affect financial stability. With rapid growth and increasing links to traditional finance, what risks does this innovation create? 15:11 What’s the situation for government financing? Governments have made progress in reducing debt levels since the pandemic. But in some euro area countries, debt remains too high and pressures to increase spending – for instance on defence – are rising. While this poses one of the biggest risks to financial stability, it could also be an opportunity for long-term growth if properly managed. 18:07 What about banks? Given the potential AI bubble, questions around the sustainability of government budgets and the rise in stablecoins, where does this leave euro area banks? Profitability is strong and non-performing loan ratios are historically low. So, how is the banking sector doing overall? 20:13 Our guest’s hot tip John Fell shares his hot tip with listeners. Financial Stability Review at a glance https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/index.en.html Financial Stability Review, November 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202511~263b5810d4.en.html Chip War, Chris Miller https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Chip-War-Worlds-Critical-Technology/dp/1982172002

Did you know that economic violence affects 12% of women in the EU? While awareness of sexual and physical violence has grown, economic abuse is often misunderstood and remains largely in the shadows. In this video, we explore the three main types of economic violence – control, exploitation and sabotage – and touch on what needs to be done to tackle it. By putting the facts in focus, we take a closer look at what charts and numbers can tell us. 🔔 Remember to like and subscribe! 🔬 Sources EU Agency for Fundamental Rights: an EU-wide survey on violence against women https://fra.europa.eu/en/publication/2014/violence-against-women-eu-wide-survey-main-results-report Surviving Economic Abuse: Statistics on financial and economic abuse https:/survivingeconomicabuse.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Statistics-on-economic-abuse_March-2020.pdf European Institute for Gender Equality: Data collection on economic violence in the EU https:/eige.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/EIGE_Factsheet_EconomicViolence.pdf 📱 Stay connected with us ECB Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/ ECB LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/european-central-bank/ ECB WhatsApp: https://www.whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaN2TDTEquiHqZTiHo2v Disclaimer The views expressed in this video do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. The information presented is: • of a general nature and not intended to address the specific circumstances of any particular individual or entity; • sometimes linked to external websites over which the ECB has no control and for which the ECB assumes no responsibility; • not intended to constitute professional or legal advice.

Atif Mian, professore di economia, politiche pubbliche e finanza presso l'Università di Princeton terrà la diciassettesima Lezione Paolo Baffi dal titolo "The Hidden Roots of Our Debt Crisis". Le Lezioni Paolo Baffi sono state istituite per promuovere contributi scientifici originali su problematiche monetarie e finanziarie da parte di studiosi eminenti. https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/lezioni-baffi/index.html

ECB Research Bulletin by Stefano Corradin, Alessandro Fontana, Christian Kubitza and Angela Maddaloni. Read more: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/research-publications/resbull/2025/html/ecb.rb251120~d4d50e9bd2.en.html The Research Bulletin features a selection of recent work on policy-relevant topics by ECB economists. Published on a monthly basis, the articles in the Research Bulletin are intended for a general audience. The views expressed in each article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the European Central Bank and the Eurosystem.